SXSW '25: Beyond Predictions: How to Shape the Future, According to Google’s Former Chief Innovation Evangelist

SXSW Day 1 2025 was full of information, thought-provoking discussions, and of course, fun. But we’re going to start our coverage with what we are learning and share it with y’all—hopefully, you find it useful.

At SXSW 2025, innovation and creativity is on full display. The first session we attended stood out not for its flashy predictions or tech showcases, but for its deeply human approach to the future. Titled Beyond Predictions: Mastering the Art of Shaping the Future, the session was led by Dr. Frederik G. Pferdt, Google's first and former Chief Innovation Evangelist and author of What’s Next Is Now: How to Live Future Ready. Rather than offering a crystal ball into the next big trend, Pferdt challenged the audience to reframe their perspective on the future entirely.

Predictions Don't Work—But Mindsets Do

Pferdt kicked off the session with a bold statement: Predictions are unreliable. He explained that while people love predictions because they provide a sense of security, they often fail—98% of the time. “We spend our lives checking weather forecasts, stock market predictions, or even expert futurists’ outlooks, but most of it doesn’t turn out as expected,” he said. Instead of relying on external forecasts, he encouraged the audience to actively shape their own future.

One of the first exercises Pferdt led was a 60-second meditation, asking attendees to close their eyes and envision their life one year from now. Where would they be? Who would they be surrounded by? What work would they be doing? “This is not about imagining some abstract, global future. This is about you,” he said. The takeaway? When people feel connected to their future selves, they make better decisions in the present.

The Future Is What You Create

To drive the point home, Pferdt asked attendees to complete two sentences:

1. “The future is ______.”

2. “The future I create is ______.”

3. 
   

The shift in perspective was immediate. Answers went from words like “uncertain” and “scary” to “legendary” (I yelled this one out) and “inspiring.” By shifting from a passive outlook to an active one, attendees saw their own power in shaping what’s next.

Pferdt referenced a UCLA study that found most people can imagine their future self 10 to 20 years from now, but once they stretch beyond that, the person they envision starts to feel like a stranger. “This disconnect is why people struggle with long-term goals like saving for retirement or prioritizing their health,” he explained. But research also shows that when people see aged images of themselves, they become more likely to invest in their future. The same principle applies to shaping our personal and professional lives: the clearer the vision, the stronger the motivation to act.

Radical Optimism and the Power of Reframing

One of the most memorable exercises Pferdt led was a simple yet profound visual framing experiment. Attendees created a frame with their hands and focused on a specific area of the room. Then, by zooming in, zooming out, and shifting angles, they saw new details emerge—details they hadn't noticed before. “This is how we see the world,” Pferdt explained. “We don’t see reality as it is. We see it as we are.”

This tied into a larger concept he introduced: radical optimism. Rather than just seeing the glass as half full, Pferdt encouraged attendees to see the opportunity to fill the glass even more. Radical optimism, he argued, isn’t about ignoring challenges—it’s about recognizing possibilities where others see obstacles.

The Role of Openness and Curiosity

Another core theme of the session was openness—not just to new experiences, but to people. Pferdt asked attendees to turn to the person next to them and share how they wanted to feel in the future. This simple act of openness led to deeper conversations and unexpected connections. “Openness creates opportunities,” Pferdt emphasized. “The more open you are, the more you see.”

Closely linked to openness is curiosity. Pferdt lamented that as people grow older, they ask fewer and fewer questions. The average child asks 140 questions per day, but by adulthood, that number drops to just four. He urged attendees to reignite their curiosity by flipping common questions on their heads. For example, instead of asking, “How can I be a better partner?” try asking, “How can I be the worst partner possible?” This reversal can reveal hidden insights and spark creative solutions.

Experimentation: The Path to a Better Future

The session concluded with a discussion on experimentation—the key to making the future tangible. Pferdt argued that the best way to prepare for the future is to practice it. He encouraged attendees to suggest small experiments that could help their partners achieve their desired future emotions. For example, if someone wanted to feel “more connected,” a simple experiment might be reaching out to an old friend or setting up a weekly call with family.

“The future isn’t something that happens to us,” Pferdt reiterated. “It’s something we create.” By embracing radical optimism, openness, curiosity, and experimentation, individuals can take control of their own narratives.

Who Do You Need to Become Today?

Dr. Pferdt’s philosophy is rooted in a “future-ready mindstate”—a dynamic way of experiencing the present that empowers individuals to shape what comes next. Unlike a fixed mindset, which is based on past experiences and beliefs, a future-ready mindstate allows for continuous growth and adaptability. It transforms anxiety into action, turns uncertainty into possibility, and helps people design a future they love.

To wrap up, Pferdt posed a powerful question to the audience: “Who do you need to become today to shape a future you love tomorrow?”

The Final Takeaway: Look at Yourself

Pferdt had one last exercise. He asked attendees to pull out their phones, switch to selfie mode, and simply look at themselves. “Who is in control of the future?” he asked. “That person right there.”

photo credit: Victorio Lu